Having lived and breathed life as a new artist, signed to Virgin EMI in the early noughties and most recently as the co-lead of Global Sync at Warner Music Group, I’ve always been intrigued by the shifting dynamics of sync opportunities.
Over the last few decades, the playground for new music has been fundamentally reshaped by consumption platforms. Today, sync faces a dual challenge: a flood of “functional” music and the automated mechanisms that prioritise volume and speed over cultural depth.
Current State
This environment is defined by relentless financial pressure. While the total global value of music copyright hit a record US$47.2 billion in 2024, effectively doubling in value over the last decade, the headline masks a significant slowdown. Growth in the recorded music sector cooled to 4.8% in 2024. This slowing cadence heightens the institutional pressure on rights-holders to prioritise reliable catalogue returns over riskier new artist investment.
The Age of “The Gatekeepers”
If we rewind the clock to the late 2000s, we were in the “Age of the Gatekeepers.” The sync business was dominated by major labels who controlled the most famous catalogues and acted as the primary, trusted suppliers of new talent.
The industry was selective, founded on human connection and A&R development. Alongside the majors, a healthy independent sector was trusted by music supervisors for quality. The “noise” was comparatively muted. If a brand wanted an authentic, new voice, the majors were the only viable starting point because those artists had already passed the rigorous filters of mainstream discovery.
The Last Decade Shift: The Rise of Functional Music
This began to change with a seismic shift in media. The explosive growth of “always-on” and UGC-driven content meant most productions could no longer afford the time or cost of traditional licensing. This created a long-tail market where “functional” music thrives.
The major labels, hampered by complex rights structures and legacy systems, simply couldn’t compete here. This allowed libraries to scale rapidly with a pitch of simple, instant, blanket clearance. This agility is pushing out qualitative opportunities for new talent. This is further reflected in investment: independent labels now allocate only 0.5% of their total expenditure to high-leverage areas like Artist Brand Opportunities and Sync.
The Algorithmic Barrier
This challenge is magnified by consumption habits. Streaming, which exceeded US$20 billion for the first time in 2024, relegates sync’s trade value to a mere 2.2% share of global recorded revenue. Although this assumes the majors see the lion’s share of the available market, which is unlikely given the rise of agile non major sync businesses, which are not part of this reporting. However significant, considering where traditional music investment occurs.
Furthermore, streaming metrics show a structural bias against the new. In the US, over two-thirds (66.4%) of music consumption is catalogue. This creates a risk-averse feedback loop for sync buyers. Even when Gen Z discovers a new artist they love, only 19% go on to listen to more music from that artist, breaking the cycle from viral exposure to meaningful fandom.
The Final Straw: The AI “Asymmetric Threat”
AI is the final straw, supercharging the gulf between sellers and buyers. It introduces what economist Will Page recently called an “asymmetric threat”: while it may grow total industry value through tech licensing, it risks destroying the professional production music sector by offering hyper-bespoke tracks in record time. The sheer volume is forcing music supervisors to rely on AI analysers just to sort through the daily deluge of 150,000+ new uploads.
The Opportunity: Culture Over Function
Where is the leverage? Fundamentally: Culture over Function. Eventually, the fatigue of “fast-food” content will set in, and creators will look for human-crafted stories. For new music to break through, these five themes are the key:
1: Originality Cracks the Code
Originality is the “magic value” AI cannot replicate. This drive is worth the effort because quality sync still commands high leverage: film sync fees can range from $10k–$80k, providing a massive, non-streaming revenue injection early in a career.
Case Study: Kaleo – “Way Down We Go” (Boots No 7) In 2016, Boots No 7 launched an ambitious film featuring ballet dancer Alessandra Ferri. The agency knew a brand-new, undiscovered song could elevate the storytelling. Not only did this commercial win awards, it was the most Shazamed spot for weeks, proving that exceptional new music drives engagement.
2: Be Intentional
Passive discovery is dead. You must be your own sync team. According to Luminate’s 2025 Midyear Report, “superfans” are driving a disproportionate share of value, being twice as likely to engage with brand activations. Being intentional means building these “superfan” connections directly with brands.
Case Study: Ed Sheeran – “Celestial” (Pokémon) This campaign didn’t come from a live brief; it derived from an intentional(door-knocking) meeting of minds, creating a 2-year multifaceted partnership. It’s about building a unified brand story across distinct media platforms.
3: Add Value
Think beyond the transaction. Do you offer flexibility in stems? Can the artist appear? Beyond Sync is added value.
Case Study: Griff – “Heartstopper” (Netflix) Netflix utilised a brand-new Griff song for the Heartstopper trailer. By using stems to craft audio around the visuals, they extracted more value and maximized the impact of the campaign, for both parties.
4: Think Global (“Glocalisation”)
The market is “glocal.” Domestic markets (Brazil, Mexico, Korea) are now powerful enough to break artists globally. Lean into your local identity; it is your most unique export. Conversely, where can music augment local content and look for new content hubs, particularly where investments are being made in Gaming, Film & TV.
Case Study: Stormzy – “Watch Dogs: Legion” (Ubisoft) We collaborated with Ubisoft in Canada on a AAA gaming title where Stormzy played a pivotal role in gameplay. Exploring underserved markets, like the Canadian gaming hub, unlocked a far-reaching global campaign.
5: Don’t Hesitate
Clarity and speed are currency. The biggest barrier to a deal is the inability to clear rights instantly. In other words, frictionless is your competitive advantage.
Case Study: BEKA – “Trying” (Apple TV) As a co-founder of W Songs, we prioritised signing artists with an appetite for sync, where on DAY 1 all parties aspired and were committed to doing sync deals. W Songs signing: BEKA, recorded 8 songs for this Apple TV project. Once the creative fit was decided, speed and flexibility were key in landing this highly competitive deal.
The Coming Years
We are seeing an evolution from seasonal highlights to an “always-on” UGC world. While speed dominates the bottom and “crown jewels” dominate the top, I believe a fatigue is coming. High-calibre creators will eventually crave deeper value, personability, shared purpose, and human-crafted stories – the best new song-writers and artists will always be admired, although more than ever new discovery tools, methods and conversations will be required to unlock new audiences and enrich careers, through the fascinating world of sync.
Written by: Tim Miles, Global Music & Gaming Executive (Ex-SVP, Warner Music Group)
Sources:
IFPI Global Music Report 2025, RIAA Mid-Year 2025 Revenue Report, Luminate 2025 Midyear Music Report, Pivotal Economics (Will Page) – “Music Copyright 2025”, Goldman Sachs “Music in the Air” (June 2025)
$47.2bn Global Copyright Value
Pivotal Economics (Will Page), 2025
4.8% Global Growth Rate (2024)
IFPI Global Music Report, 2025
0.5% Labels’ Sync/Brand Investment
RIAA/MIDiA Industry Metrics H1 2025
69% Streaming Share of Total Revenue
IFPI Global Music Report, 2025
66.4% US Catalogue Consumption
Luminate Midyear Report, 2025
19% Gen Z Artist Discovery Retention
Luminate Consumer Research, 2025
150k Daily Track Uploads
Bridge.audio / Luminate Data Estimates
$10k–$80k Film Sync Fee Ranges
Sync Market Analysis (Pivotal Economics/IMPF)
US Trade Surplus / Export Dominance
RIAA Mid-Year Report, 2025
